in particular opec. In July 2018, global oil prices averaged 74/b. IMF analysis suggested that 40-50 of the climb in the oil price in this five-year period was the result of US weakness and the recovery of the US in 2009 probably played a part in the fall in oil prices from 2008. The medium-term supply and demand trends are expected to result in world oil prices rising by about 2 pa in real terms over the period to 2020, to US100pb in 2008 prices, with nominal Brent crude forecast to climb to around US100pb in 2015 and. We forecast the price of oil in constant 2008 US terms at US110pb. This corresponds to an average annual real increase in oil prices of about.5 pa over the period. The price of oil in real terms set a new record high in mid 2008, surpassing the level in 1980 that resulted from the Iranian revolution and the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war. As the euro rose, the dollar fell. As a result, we forecast the price of Brent crude in nominal terms will climb to around US180pb in 2030, slightly below the projections of both the IEA and the EIA. Long-term oil demand forecasts World Growth pa EIA mb/d IEA mb/d opec OE mb/d.2.9 106.6.3 22.214.171.124 126.96.36.199 188.8.131.52.1.0 -.184.108.40.206.2.0 The Oxford Economics forecast of long-term oil demand.
Opec releases oil forecast to 2030 Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2018, 2019 and Long Term to 2030
Opec oil price forecast 2030
These factors could weaken oil demand, meaning even weaker prices in the near term; but lower prices would act as a dampener on investment, thereby potentially adding to long-term capacity problems and upward pressure on prices. High oil prices can result in "demand destruction." If high prices last long enough, people change their buying habits. Oil speculators could spike the price higher if they panic about future supply shortages. Production will top 12 million b/d. The interactive version of the WOO also provides the possibility of downloading specific data and information. That's because supply is just one of the three factors affecting oil prices. Throughout its history, opec controlled production to maintain a 70/b price target. But growth 1 The income elasticity of demand for oil measures the change in demand associated with a given change in GDP. The IEA figures show demand for oil (excluding biofuels) growing by 1 pa over the period, rising from 85 mb/d in 2008 to 105 mb/d in 2030, with all of the increase in demand coming from non-oecd countries, while oecd demand actually declines. Despite the sharp slide in the latter part of 2008, the real oil price remains comfortably above the levels that prevailed during the 20-year period from 1985 to 2005 and that resulted in low oil industry investment over the period.